Governor Abiodun’s Political Calculations Deepen Crisis, Threaten APC Unity in Ogun — Faleye

On the surface, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State appears calm and well-organized. Governor Dapo Abiodun recently praised the conduct of the party’s ward congresses across the state’s 20 local government areas, describing the exercise as peaceful and reflective of unity and political maturity. However, critics argue that this public narrative masks a growing internal crisis driven by exclusionary politics and deep factionalization.

According to Faleye and other party observers, the current instability within the Ogun APC is not accidental but the result of deliberate strategies aimed at consolidating personal power. They allege that Governor Abiodun, facing waning political influence, has adopted a divide-and-rule approach that sidelines long-established power brokers within the party. This strategy, critics warn, risks weakening the APC’s grassroots structure ahead of the decisive 2027 elections.

The fault lines became more visible during a recent APC stakeholders’ meeting held at the June 12 Cultural Centre in Abeokuta. While the governor was flanked by selected loyalists, including former governor Olusegun Osoba, the conspicuous absence of Ibikunle Amosun and Gbenga Daniel raised eyebrows. Party sources insist their exclusion was deliberate, signaling a widening rift among APC heavyweights.

Insiders further allege that participation in party activities is now conditioned on loyalty to Governor Abiodun rather than commitment to the party. Reports of party members being denied access to meetings for lacking a governor-approved aso ebi have fueled accusations that the APC is being reduced to a private political club. Loyalists of Amosun and Daniel were reportedly shut out, despite their strong grassroots networks and electoral relevance.

Beyond optics, critics argue that real political influence in Ogun State still lies with established figures who command regional support. Amosun is widely regarded as the dominant force in Ogun Central, while Olamilekan Adeola (popularly known as Yayi) controls Ogun West. Gbenga Daniel, despite repeated sidelining, is believed to retain firm control of Ogun East. Analysts note that these structures are critical to delivering votes, particularly for President Bola Tinubu’s reelection bid.

Tensions are reportedly highest between Abiodun and Senator Adeola. While publicly maintaining cordial relations, sources claim the governor views Yayi as a major threat to his influence and a potential rival for 2027. Allegations of behind-the-scenes moves to undermine the senator, including the quiet promotion of alternative aspirants, have further strained relationships within the party.

The struggle has also spilled into party mobilization structures, particularly the women’s wing. Competing factions aligned with different power blocs have emerged, each laying claim to legitimacy and influence. Observers say this internal fragmentation reflects the broader crisis of trust and leadership within the Ogun APC.

Political analysts warn that unless urgent reconciliation occurs, the APC risks a major setback in Ogun State. Excluding influential figures like Amosun and Daniel could alienate their supporters or even push them toward opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party or the Labour Party.

As the party moves to ratify ward congress results and inaugurate new executives, concerns over credibility and internal democracy persist. While Governor Abiodun may have tightened his grip on party structures, critics argue that the cost could be long-term instability and electoral losses.

For many observers, the unfolding drama in Ogun APC is a cautionary tale: without genuine inclusiveness and respect for established political structures, short-term control could translate into long-term defeat.