IMF Says Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Reforms Are Yielding Results as Growth Outlook Improves

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform programme, stating that recent macroeconomic adjustments are beginning to deliver tangible results in terms of stability, predictability, and growth prospects. This assessment was contained in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.”

According to the report, Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2025 has been upgraded to 4.4 per cent, representing a 0.2 percentage-point increase from the Fund’s October forecast. The IMF further projected that growth would moderate slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 2027, figures that also represent marginal upward revisions from earlier estimates. The improvements, the Fund noted, underscore rising confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory after a period of economic volatility.

The IMF explained that the improved outlook for Nigeria forms part of a broader reassessment of growth prospects across Sub-Saharan Africa. The region’s economy is now projected to expand by 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, reflecting upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from previous forecasts.

Speaking during a hybrid press briefing in Washington, Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, attributed the upgrades to a mix of domestic policy reforms and supportive external conditions. She noted that commodity-exporting economies in the region have benefited from stronger global prices, particularly for gold, copper, and coffee—commodities for which several African countries are major exporters.

More specifically, Igan highlighted Nigeria as one of the region’s largest economies where macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to take hold. According to her, policy measures such as tighter monetary conditions, exchange rate adjustments, and broader fiscal reforms are gradually restoring balance and improving economic predictability.

“Macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to yield results in key economies, notably Ethiopia and Nigeria,” Igan said. “Together with favourable commodity prices and structural reforms in countries like South Africa, these factors are strengthening the region’s growth prospects.”

She also pointed out that global financial conditions have been more supportive than previously anticipated. External borrowing costs have eased, improving access to financing and reducing pressure on highly indebted economies. Compared to conditions in October, the IMF said the external environment has become marginally more favourable, contributing to the upward revisions in growth projections.

However, the Fund cautioned that risks remain elevated. Igan warned that anticipated cuts in international development assistance could disproportionately affect low-income and fragile economies, while any sudden tightening of global financial conditions could reverse recent gains, particularly for countries still adjusting to reform-related pressures.

The IMF’s cautiously optimistic assessment came on the same day Nigeria recorded a major milestone in non-oil exports. The Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, announced that the country’s non-oil exports reached an all-time high of approximately $6.1 billion in 2025.

Ayeni disclosed that the figure represents an 11.5 per cent year-on-year increase from the $5.46 billion recorded in 2024 and marks the highest value of formally documented non-oil exports since the inception of the council. She described the achievement as evidence of the growing resilience and relevance of Nigeria’s non-oil export sector.

According to the NEPC boss, non-oil exports reached markets in 120 countries, with the Netherlands accounting for 17.53 per cent of total export value, followed by Brazil at 10.35 per cent and India at 7.63 per cent. Exports to the Netherlands grew by over 32 per cent, driven largely by cocoa beans, cocoa butter, and sesame seeds, while exports to Brazil rose by about 19 per cent.

In volume terms, total non-oil exports stood at 8.02 million metric tonnes in 2025, a 10 per cent increase from the 7.29 million metric tonnes recorded the previous year. Nigeria exported 281 different non-oil products, spanning agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, industrial inputs, and solid minerals—an indication of gradual progress toward value addition and diversification.

Ayeni noted that although exports to ECOWAS countries declined due to the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the regional bloc, exports to other African countries increased, reinforcing the importance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in boosting intra-African trade.

She attributed the strong performance to sustained government support, capacity-building initiatives, and the determination of Nigerian exporters who have continued to operate despite economic headwinds.

Taken together, the IMF’s upgraded growth projections and Nigeria’s record non-oil export performance suggest that recent macroeconomic reforms are beginning to translate into measurable outcomes. While challenges remain, the emerging data point to a gradually stabilising economy with improved prospects for medium-term growth.