Nigeria’s Economy Records 4.07% GDP Growth in Q4 2025 — NBS

Nigeria’s economy recorded a real GDP growth rate of 4.07 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, marking an improvement from the 3.76 per cent growth recorded in the same period of 2024. The latest figures were released on Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signalling a stronger year-end performance for Africa’s largest economy.

According to the report, the Q4 outcome helped lift full-year economic growth to 3.87 per cent in 2025, up from 3.38 per cent recorded in 2024. The NBS noted that the improvement was driven by better performances across key sectors, including agriculture, industry, oil, and non-oil activities, with the services sector retaining its long-standing position as the biggest contributor to overall output.

In sectoral terms, agriculture grew by 4.00 per cent in Q4 2025, reflecting improved crop production and relative stability in rural economic activity. The industrial sector expanded by 3.88 per cent, supported by manufacturing, construction, and extractive activities. The services sector posted a growth rate of 4.15 per cent and accounted for 55.92 per cent of total real GDP during the quarter, underlining its dominance in Nigeria’s economic structure.

Nominal GDP figures also showed significant expansion. The economy was valued at ₦122.81 trillion in nominal terms in Q4 2025, representing a 17.55 per cent increase compared to ₦104.48 trillion recorded in Q4 2024. This rise reflects both increased economic activity and price-level changes within the economy.

The oil sector posted a particularly notable performance on a year-on-year basis. Real growth in the sector stood at 6.79 per cent in Q4 2025, a sharp increase from the 2.08 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2024. For the full year, oil sector growth reached 8.50 per cent, compared to 5.54 per cent in 2024. However, the sector still faced short-term volatility, contracting by 6.30 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 2025.

Average daily crude oil production during the quarter was 1.58 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the 1.54 million barrels per day recorded in Q4 2024 but below the 1.64 million barrels per day achieved in Q3 2025. Despite this, oil contributed 2.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 2025, while accounting for 3.53 per cent of GDP for the full year.

The non-oil sector continued to anchor the economy, growing by 3.99 per cent in real terms in Q4 2025. This growth was driven by activities such as crop production, telecommunications, trade, real estate, financial services, construction, road transport, and food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing. In real terms, the non-oil sector accounted for 97.13 per cent of GDP in Q4 2025 and 96.47 per cent for the full year, reinforcing its central role in Nigeria’s economic resilience.

Beyond domestic data, global financial institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s medium-term growth outlook following the latest GDP release. The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.9 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026. Similarly, the World Bank has maintained a 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027 and recently upgraded its 2026 projection to 4.4 per cent from an earlier estimate of 3.7 per cent.

While the figures suggest steady improvement and renewed confidence among international observers, public reaction within Nigeria has been mixed. Many Nigerians argue that macroeconomic growth has yet to translate into tangible improvements in living standards, pointing to persistent inflation, rising food prices, and high unemployment as ongoing challenges.

Economists note that GDP growth alone does not automatically improve welfare, especially in an economy with rapid population growth and structural bottlenecks. They stress that sustained improvements in living conditions will depend on how growth is distributed, the pace of job creation, and progress in stabilising prices and strengthening purchasing power.

Nonetheless, the Q4 2025 GDP report underscores a positive trajectory compared to the previous year and highlights the importance of non-oil diversification in Nigeria’s economic recovery. Whether this growth momentum can be maintained—and felt more directly by ordinary Nigerians—remains one of the key economic questions heading into 2026.