Nigeria’s Oil Output Falls 8.3% to 1.544 Million Barrels Per Day, Misses OPEC and Budget Targets

Nigeria’s crude oil production suffered a notable decline in December 2025, reinforcing longstanding concerns about the country’s dependence on oil revenue and the structural weaknesses plaguing the energy sector. According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, dropped by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to an average of 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to 1.684 million bpd recorded in the same period in 2024.

Although the Commission did not explicitly state the reasons for the decline in its latest report, industry observers point to familiar challenges such as limited upstream investment, aging oil fields, insecurity in producing regions, and policy uncertainty. On a month-on-month basis, production also dipped slightly, falling from 1.599 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.544 million bpd in December, highlighting the fragile nature of Nigeria’s oil recovery efforts.

A closer look at the figures reveals deeper concerns. Of the total 1.544 million bpd produced in December, 122,385 bpd consisted of condensate, which is not counted under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota system. This means Nigeria’s actual crude oil production stood at about 1.422 million bpd—well below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. Consequently, Nigeria once again failed to meet its assigned output level, a recurring issue that has persisted for years.

The production shortfall also means the federal government missed its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd. The budget assumptions were based on an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of about ₦1,500 to the dollar. With output falling significantly below target, concerns are growing over revenue projections, fiscal sustainability, and the government’s capacity to fund critical infrastructure and social programmes.

In its report, the NUPRC noted that the lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production levels during the period were 1.52 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd respectively. It added that the average crude oil production represented only about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. The daily average output of 1,544,345 bpd comprised 1,421,960 barrels of crude oil and 122,385 barrels of condensate.

These figures were corroborated by OPEC in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). According to the cartel, Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate, declined marginally by 0.9 per cent month-on-month, from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025 to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, OPEC data obtained through direct communication showed a drop from 1.485 million bpd to 1.422 million bpd, further confirming Nigeria’s inability to meet its quota.

Reacting to the development, Professor Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, attributed the persistent underperformance to deep-rooted structural problems. He cited insecurity, a mature oil basin with few major new discoveries, the failure to regularly offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding, and weak governance as key factors discouraging investment. According to him, selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has worsened uncertainty, undermining investor confidence and slowing production growth.

Beyond the technical data, the report has reignited public debate on Nigeria’s overreliance on oil. Many commentators argue that decades of rhetoric about economic diversification have yielded little tangible progress. Despite successive administrations promising to reduce dependence on crude oil, the economy remains highly vulnerable to production disruptions and global oil price fluctuations.

As Nigeria continues to miss both OPEC quotas and budgetary targets, analysts warn that without decisive reforms, stronger institutions, improved security, and consistent policy implementation, oil production may continue to stagnate or decline. The latest figures serve as a stark reminder that Nigeria’s oil sector challenges are not new—and that meaningful solutions will require political will, long-term planning, and a clear strategic roadmap beyond oil.