Tinubu’s Record Shows Early Gains Despite Inherited Economic Crisis – Presidency

The Presidency has reiterated that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has made measurable progress within a relatively short period, arguing that the scale of inherited economic challenges makes the early gains achieved so far significant and noteworthy. This position was articulated by the President’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, in response to an assessment published by The Economist.

According to the Presidency, President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 at a time when Nigeria’s economy was facing one of its most severe crises in decades. The Central Bank of Nigeria was reportedly grappling with unmet obligations estimated at about $7 billion, equivalent to roughly 1.4 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the time. This situation, combined with policy inconsistencies and declining foreign exchange reserves, had severely eroded investor confidence, triggering large-scale capital flight.

In excerpts shared by Onanuga from The Economist’s January 29 edition, the international publication described the economic environment inherited by the Tinubu administration as deeply distorted. The report highlighted years of unsustainable fiscal practices, including a multi-tiered foreign exchange regime and a fuel subsidy system that cost the government an estimated $10 billion in 2022 alone—about 2.2 per cent of GDP. These policies, according to the report, weakened macroeconomic stability and placed enormous pressure on public finances.

To address these structural weaknesses, the Tinubu administration embarked on a series of far-reaching reforms shortly after assuming office. Chief among these was the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, allowing the naira to trade more freely. While these decisions triggered short-term inflationary pressures and increased the cost of living, the government has maintained that they were necessary to avert a deeper economic collapse and restore long-term stability.

The Economist noted that the Central Bank responded to the reforms by tightening monetary policy aggressively in a bid to rein in inflation. In parallel, the federal government intensified efforts to improve security in the Niger Delta, a move aimed at boosting oil production and reducing revenue losses from theft and vandalism. Tax incentives were also introduced to attract new investments into critical sectors of the economy.

Although the publication acknowledged that many Nigerians—particularly the poor and middle class—continue to experience hardship due to rising fuel and food prices, it observed that key macroeconomic indicators are beginning to show signs of recovery. Inflation, which peaked at 34.8 per cent in December 2024, reportedly declined to 15.2 per cent by December 2025. Economic growth is also projected to strengthen, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting a 4.4 per cent expansion in 2026.

Further indicators cited include the stabilisation of the naira following sharp devaluations in 2023 and a significant improvement in foreign exchange reserves, which have reportedly climbed to $46 billion—the highest level in seven years. These developments, according to the report, are gradually restoring investor confidence.

Evidence of renewed interest from international investors has begun to emerge. Shell has announced plans to finalise arrangements for a $20 billion offshore oil project by 2027, while ExxonMobil has committed $1.5 billion to deep-water oil development over the same period. Local oil and gas firms have also increased output, aided by improved security conditions in oil-producing regions.

The report concluded that Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic stability could provide the government with greater fiscal flexibility, particularly as a more competitive exchange rate boosts non-oil exports such as cocoa and cashew nuts.

While public debate continues over the social costs of the reforms and their impact on everyday Nigerians, the Presidency maintains that the early results validate the administration’s reform agenda. According to Onanuga, the focus of the Tinubu government remains on laying a sustainable foundation for long-term growth, even if the immediate benefits are still unevenly felt across the population.