Why Tinubu Lost Lagos in the 2023 Presidential Election – Obanikoro Explains

Former Minister of State for Defence, Musiliu Obanikoro, has offered fresh insight into why President Bola Tinubu failed to secure victory in Lagos during the 2023 presidential election, despite the state being widely regarded as his political stronghold. Obanikoro shared his views during an interview with Vanguard, published on Monday, February 23, 2026.

According to the former senator and ex-minister, Tinubu’s loss in Lagos cannot be attributed to a single factor but rather to a convergence of political, religious, and social dynamics that shaped voter behaviour at the time. Obanikoro stressed that while party loyalists and supporters worked hard during the campaign, certain decisions and prevailing sentiments among the electorate ultimately influenced the outcome.

Central to Obanikoro’s argument is the controversial Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket fielded by the ruling party in 2023. He described the decision as a major departure from Nigeria’s long-standing informal convention of religious balancing at the highest level of political leadership. Historically, Nigerian presidential tickets have often paired a Muslim with a Christian, a practice aimed at reflecting the country’s religious diversity and easing fears of domination by any single faith.

Obanikoro explained that the 2023 election marked the first time in modern Nigerian politics that such a ticket was presented at the national level, a move he said unsettled many voters. While acknowledging that Nigeria is constitutionally secular, he noted that religion remains a deeply sensitive and influential factor in political decision-making, especially during elections.

He pointed out that Lagos occupies a unique position in Nigeria’s religious landscape. The state hosts the headquarters of numerous Christian denominations and faith-based organisations, with millions of adherents spread across its densely populated urban centres. As a result, religious considerations featured prominently in political discussions and campaign narratives within the state during the election period.

According to Obanikoro, many Christian voters in Lagos perceived the Muslim–Muslim ticket as a potential threat to religious balance in governance. He said there were widespread fears that such an arrangement could relegate Christians to a secondary status in national leadership, a scenario unfamiliar to many Nigerians who had grown accustomed to faith-balanced tickets.

“For years, Nigerians were used to a system where religious representation at the top was balanced,” Obanikoro said. “If a Muslim headed the ticket, a Christian would be the running mate, and vice versa. That pattern became the norm, almost a tradition. When that tradition was disrupted, it naturally created anxiety and resistance.”

He added that introducing such a “shock” into a politically sensitive environment was bound to provoke reactions, particularly in a cosmopolitan and politically active state like Lagos. Obanikoro emphasised that these reactions, combined with other underlying factors, contributed significantly to Tinubu’s loss in the state.

Beyond religion, Obanikoro hinted that broader national issues at the time—such as economic pressures, heightened political awareness among urban voters, and intense social media-driven campaigns—also played a role in shaping electoral choices. Lagos, being Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre and one of its most politically engaged states, became a focal point for these debates.

The former minister, however, was careful to note that Tinubu’s defeat in Lagos should not be interpreted as a complete rejection of his political influence. He suggested that the margin of loss and the complex factors involved indicate a temporary backlash rather than a permanent shift in political loyalty.

As Nigeria looks ahead to future elections, Obanikoro’s comments have reignited debates about the role of religion, tradition, and voter perception in electoral politics. His analysis underscores the delicate balance Nigerian politicians must strike when making strategic decisions in a deeply diverse society—where even long-held strongholds can become unpredictable when established norms are challenged.