Yemi Kale Clarifies Okonjo-Iweala’s Remarks on Nigeria’s

Former Statistician-General of the Federation and ex-Chief Executive of the National Bureau of Statistics, Dr. Yemi Kale, has offered a detailed explanation of what economists mean when they describe Nigeria’s economy as “stable.” His comments came in response to public debates following remarks by the Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, who recently described Nigeria’s economy as stable after a meeting with President Bola Tinubu in Abuja.

Okonjo-Iweala’s statement had stirred heated conversations among Nigerians. Many citizens questioned how the economy could be described as stable when households across the country are still struggling with rising food prices, expensive housing, high transportation fares, and increasing healthcare costs. For many, the word “stable” seemed detached from the economic realities faced daily.

But according to Dr. Kale, the term “economic stability” is not meant to imply immediate relief for households. Rather, it is a technical concept that refers to the condition of key economic indicators—such as inflation, exchange rates, and gross domestic product growth—becoming more predictable and less volatile.

Kale explained that in economics, stability is not measured by how affordable basic goods and services are at a given moment but by whether the economy has stopped experiencing unpredictable swings that create uncertainty. He gave an example using inflation. If inflation, which may have peaked at 25 percent, falls to around 12 percent and remains steady at that level, the economy is said to be stable. This is true even though prices remain significantly higher than they were before the spike.

In simple terms, stability reflects predictability. It means the environment for businesses, investors, and even consumers is less risky because shocks are no longer hitting the economy unexpectedly. Kale likened this to stopping a boat from rocking violently on stormy waters. While the boat may not yet be close to the safety of shore, the fact that it is no longer being tossed around signals the beginning of recovery.

For many Nigerians, however, the distinction between stability and improved living standards feels academic. Families struggling to put food on the table, pay rent, and meet healthcare bills understandably expect that if the economy is stable, life should also be getting easier. Kale acknowledged this frustration but stressed that stability and comfort do not arrive at the same time.

He pointed out that after a crisis such as a currency crash, hyperinflation, or sudden recession, stability is usually the first phase of recovery. It means the bleeding has stopped, but it does not immediately reverse the high costs that the crisis created. Prices of goods and services often remain elevated, leaving households with little relief.

In addition, the benefits of stability typically reach businesses and investors before ordinary citizens. Companies may experience stronger balance sheets, improved planning, and better access to credit. Investors may gain confidence to put money into the economy. But for workers, traders, and households, it can take months or even years before these changes filter down into cheaper goods, higher wages, and expanded job opportunities.

“The pain is real, immediate, and personal,” Kale admitted, noting that for citizens, stability feels abstract compared to the daily struggles they face in markets, at petrol stations, and in paying school fees. He also warned that unless stability is maintained for a sustained period, the risk of sliding back into crisis remains high.

Summing up his analysis, Kale emphasized that stability should be viewed as a first step, not a final solution. While it cannot end hardship on its own, it is the foundation upon which growth and recovery are built. Without stability, it becomes impossible to plan or implement the kinds of reforms that can generate jobs, increase incomes, and reduce poverty.

He stressed that his explanation was “purely technical, not political,” in an effort to clarify misunderstandings without wading into partisan debates. For Kale, the focus should be on sustaining stability long enough for its benefits to spread to households.

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s remarks had triggered this debate after she met with President Bola Tinubu behind closed doors at the Presidential Villa on Thursday. Speaking with reporters afterwards, the WTO chief praised the Tinubu administration for what she described as reforms that are restoring stability to Nigeria’s economy.

“The President and his team have worked hard to stabilize the economy,” she said. “The reforms have been in the right direction. The next step is growth, and alongside that, building social safety nets so those feeling the pinch of reforms can get support.”

Okonjo-Iweala further explained that while stabilization was necessary, it must be followed by deliberate policies that encourage growth, job creation, and income expansion. She emphasized the importance of protecting vulnerable Nigerians through social safety nets that cushion the impact of reforms.

Meanwhile, many Nigerians remain skeptical of such positive assessments. Social media platforms have been filled with reactions from citizens who insist that the government’s claims of stability mean little if ordinary people cannot afford basic necessities. Some mocked statistics and economic terms, arguing that they do not put food on the table.

This skepticism is not new. Reports from the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this month showing that inflation had slowed to 21.88 percent were met with similar criticism. While technically a sign of improvement, citizens countered that the slowdown did not make groceries any cheaper.

The debate over stability underscores the gap between economic analysis and lived experiences. For policymakers and economists, stability is an achievement worth noting because it signals the end of turbulence. For citizens, however, the demand is for visible improvements in living conditions.

Kale’s explanation highlights why both perspectives can be true. Nigeria may indeed be more stable in macroeconomic terms, but until that stability translates into lower costs and higher incomes, the sense of crisis at the household level will persist.

For the Tinubu administration, the challenge now is not only to maintain stability but to accelerate the transition to growth and ensure that the benefits reach citizens. This means creating jobs, supporting small businesses, expanding access to healthcare and education, and strengthening social safety nets as Okonjo-Iweala advised.

As Kale noted, the economy may have stopped rocking, but until it moves closer to shore, Nigerians will continue to feel strong .