Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.15% in December as Economic Pressures Persist

Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.15 percent in December 2025, up from 14.45 percent recorded in November, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The increase highlights the continued pressure on household incomes and purchasing power, even as some indicators suggest a moderation when compared with inflation levels recorded a year earlier.

The NBS data showed that inflation increased by 0.7 percent on a month-on-month basis in December, reflecting rising prices across key components of the consumer basket during the festive period. December is traditionally associated with increased consumer spending due to the Christmas and New Year celebrations, which often places upward pressure on prices of goods and services.

Despite the rise in headline inflation, the report indicated a marginal improvement in food inflation on a month-to-month basis. Food inflation declined to 10.84 percent in December from 11.08 percent in November, representing a drop of 1.49 percentage points. This decline suggests a slight easing in the pace at which food prices increased during the month, although food costs remain significantly high for many households.

On a broader year-on-year basis, the NBS report showed a notable reduction in inflation compared to December 2024. Headline inflation stood at 15.15 percent in December 2025, which is 19.65 percentage points lower than the 34.80 percent recorded in December 2024. The Bureau attributed part of this sharp difference to the base-year effect, as inflation figures are now being compared against an unusually high inflation level recorded a year earlier.

According to the report, the Consumer Price Index rose to 131.2 points in December 2025, up from 130.5 points in November. This increase reflects the general rise in the average price level of goods and services consumed by households during the period. The NBS explained that while the year-on-year inflation rate declined significantly compared to the previous year, the month-on-month increase indicates that prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace.

“The December 2025 year-on-year headline inflation rate stood at 15.15 percent relative to the November 2025 headline inflation rate,” the NBS stated. “On a year-on-year basis, the December headline inflation rate was 19.65 percent lower than the rate recorded in December 2024, though with a different base year of November 2009 = 100.”

The divergence between the month-on-month and year-on-year trends has fueled debate among analysts and the general public. While some economists argue that the significant year-on-year decline signals progress in stabilising prices, others contend that the lived experience of Nigerians tells a different story, as the cost of essential goods remains high and incomes have not kept pace with price changes.

Food inflation, although easing slightly in December, continues to be a major concern. Many Nigerians still struggle with the high cost of staples such as rice, garri, beans, and cooking oil. Analysts note that a decline in food inflation does not necessarily mean prices are falling; rather, it may indicate that prices are increasing at a slower rate than before. For households already stretched by months of high food costs, this distinction offers little immediate relief.

The inflation data comes amid broader economic challenges, including currency volatility, high energy costs, and structural constraints in food production and distribution. Transportation costs, driven by fuel prices, continue to affect the prices of goods across markets, while insecurity in some agricultural regions has disrupted supply chains.

Reactions to the NBS report have been mixed. Supporters of the government point to the year-on-year decline as evidence that inflationary pressures are gradually easing and project further moderation in the coming months. Critics, however, argue that official statistics do not fully capture the hardship faced by ordinary Nigerians, insisting that prices in local markets remain unaffordable for many.

Economists caution that sustained reductions in inflation will require consistent policy measures, including improved food production, better logistics, fiscal discipline, and measures to stabilise the exchange rate. Without these, they warn, short-term improvements driven by base effects may not translate into meaningful relief for consumers.

As Nigeria moves into 2026, inflation remains a critical indicator to watch. While the December figures suggest some progress when compared with last year’s extreme levels, the month-on-month rise underscores the reality that price pressures have not disappeared, and the struggle with the cost of living remains a defining issue for millions of Nigerians.