Africa’s Aviation Sector Poised to Double by 2044, Says IATA, but Urges Policy Reforms

Africa’s aviation industry is preparing for a significant leap forward over the next two decades, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting a steady annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. If this trajectory is maintained, the continent’s air transport market is expected to double in size by the year 2044.

This projection was shared by Somas Appavou, IATA’s Regional Director for External Affairs in Africa, in a statement published on the association’s website. He emphasized that the aviation sector is already a powerful contributor to the continent’s economic growth and social integration.

At present, Africa’s aviation industry generates around 75 billion US dollars for the continent’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and sustains more than 8 million jobs. These figures highlight the sector’s vital role in connecting people, enabling trade, supporting tourism, and creating employment across borders.

While the numbers suggest a promising future, IATA’s outlook comes with a caution: growth on this scale will only materialize if African governments take decisive steps to strengthen the policy environment. The association stressed that governments must stop viewing aviation merely as a cash cow and instead focus on creating a regulatory climate that supports investment, innovation, and connectivity.

One of the central messages in IATA’s report is that the long-term health of aviation in Africa depends not just on fleet expansion or infrastructure development, but also on resolving fundamental issues that have historically limited the industry’s full potential.

To ensure that aviation truly thrives across Africa, IATA has identified three main areas where urgent and sustained action is needed: safety, affordability, and access to airline revenues.

The first challenge is safety. While progress has been made in reducing the number of air accidents and improving operational protocols, the continent still falls short of global safety standards. According to IATA, the average rate of effective implementation of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety standards across Sub-Saharan Africa stands at just under 60 percent. In contrast, the global average is closer to 70 percent.

This gap has real-world consequences. It affects the confidence of both passengers and international carriers, reduces insurance competitiveness, and creates barriers to international code-sharing agreements. IATA is urging African nations to step up regulatory oversight and ensure better accident investigation and enforcement of safety protocols. Adhering more fully to ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices is seen as a non-negotiable step toward achieving global parity in safety performance.

The second critical area is the high cost of flying within and out of Africa. Airfares, along with government-imposed taxes, levies, and fees, are significantly higher than in most other parts of the world. IATA reports that these charges can be as much as 15 percent above the global average. The result is that flying remains prohibitively expensive for many Africans, restricting the growth of passenger traffic and limiting aviation’s broader contribution to economic activity.

Rather than relying on punitive taxes to generate revenue, IATA recommends that governments collaborate more closely with airline operators to design scalable, efficient infrastructure systems. Such partnerships would not only reduce operating costs but also open up travel to a broader segment of the population. In the long run, this approach would likely yield greater economic returns than short-term revenue collection through high fees.

The third concern raised by IATA is the issue of blocked airline funds. This has become a major pain point for international and regional carriers operating on the continent. As of May 2025, an estimated 1 billion dollars in airline revenues remain trapped in 26 African countries due to currency restrictions and delayed repatriation policies. Alarmingly, this accounts for 73 percent of all blocked airline funds worldwide.

Airlines faced with these restrictions often respond by scaling back their operations, reducing flight frequencies, or in some cases, halting service entirely. This creates a ripple effect, cutting off communities from vital global connections, deterring foreign investment, and harming sectors such as tourism, logistics, and business travel. IATA is calling on African governments to resolve this issue through more flexible foreign exchange regulations and better financial governance.

In addition to economic and operational concerns, IATA is urging African governments to embrace international environmental standards for aviation. One key recommendation is the adoption of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), a global initiative aimed at limiting carbon emissions from the aviation industry.

Currently, 129 countries are enrolled in the CORSIA program, including 20 from Africa. While the program is still in its voluntary phase, it will become mandatory in 2027. IATA warns that fragmented approaches, such as region-specific taxes or disjointed emissions schemes, could increase costs and discourage investment.

By uniting under a common framework like CORSIA, African nations can avoid inefficiencies and align themselves with international best practices. This will not only help the environment but also support the long-term viability of aviation on the continent.

As the global aviation industry moves toward recovery and growth following years of disruption, Africa stands at a crossroads. With a young and growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising demand for mobility, the potential for air travel on the continent is enormous.

But that promise will only be fulfilled if African leaders make bold and strategic choices now. That means improving safety oversight, reducing the cost of flying, ensuring access to airline revenues, and embracing sustainability as a shared global responsibility.

The IATA forecast is more than just a prediction; it is a roadmap for action. If implemented wisely, it can help transform Africa’s aviation landscape and ensure that the sector continues to serve as a pillar of progress, prosperity, and connection across the continent.