World Bank Revises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast Upward to 4.4%, Signals Stronger Economic Outlook

The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook upward, projecting that the country’s economy will expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, an increase from the 3.7 percent forecast released in June 2025. The improved projection was disclosed in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, published on Tuesday, and reflects a more optimistic assessment of Nigeria’s medium-term economic trajectory.

In addition to the upward revision for 2026, the Bretton Woods institution also raised Nigeria’s growth projection for 2027 to 4.4 percent, up from the earlier estimate of 3.8 percent. The World Bank further estimated that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 percent in 2025, significantly higher than the 3.6 percent growth rate it had projected in June of the previous year. These adjustments suggest a stronger-than-expected performance by Africa’s largest economy amid ongoing reforms and global economic headwinds.

The report also highlighted a modest improvement in the global economic outlook. According to the World Bank, global growth for 2026 has been revised upward to 2.6 percent from the earlier projection of 2.4 percent, while growth for 2025 is now estimated at 2.7 percent, compared to the 2.3 percent forecast last year. The global growth rate for 2027 is projected to remain steady at 2.7 percent, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 2.6 percent.

Despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainties worldwide, the World Bank noted that the global economy has shown greater resilience than previously anticipated. This resilience, the institution explained, is largely driven by stronger-than-expected growth in advanced economies, particularly the United States, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the upward revision to the 2026 global growth forecast.

However, the World Bank cautioned that this resilience is uneven and may not translate into meaningful poverty reduction, especially in developing regions. The report warned that the 2020s are on track to become the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s, with much of the expansion concentrated in advanced economies. As a result, extreme poverty levels are unlikely to decline significantly without targeted reforms.

Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank projected that the region’s economic growth would rise to 4.3 percent in 2026 and further improve to 4.5 percent in 2027. Growth in developing economies, however, is expected to slow slightly to 4.0 percent in 2026 from 4.2 percent in 2025, before edging up to 4.1 percent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilize, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.

Low-income countries are expected to outperform the broader developing world, with average growth projected at 5.6 percent over the 2026–2027 period. This growth is expected to be supported by stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation. Nevertheless, the World Bank warned that developing economies will continue to lag behind advanced economies, with per capita income growth projected at just 3 percent in 2026. At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to remain only about 12 percent of that in advanced economies, further widening the global income gap.

Commenting on the findings, Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist, noted that while the global economy appears more resilient to policy uncertainty, its capacity to generate strong growth is weakening. He warned that prolonged divergence between economic dynamism and resilience could strain public finances and credit markets, especially as countries grapple with record levels of public and private debt.

Similarly, Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group, emphasized the urgency of restoring fiscal credibility in emerging and developing economies, where public debt has reached its highest level in over five decades. He noted that well-designed fiscal rules can help stabilize debt, rebuild policy buffers, and improve governments’ ability to respond to economic shocks. However, Kose stressed that the effectiveness of such rules ultimately depends on strong institutions, credible enforcement, and sustained political commitment.

For Nigeria, the revised growth projections signal renewed optimism but also underscore the need for inclusive growth that translates into job creation, poverty reduction, and improved living standards for millions of citizens.