South-South’s Full Shift to APC: Evaluating Regional Political Realignments and National Implications (December 2025)

Nigeria’s political landscape entered a new phase of recalibration following updated data indicating that the All Progressives Congress (APC) now controls all six states in the South-South geopolitical zone. This development—unprecedented since the return to democratic rule in 1999—has sparked a national debate about realignment, party dominance, the integrity of elections, and the overall health of Nigeria’s democracy as the 2027 general elections approach.

According to the December 9, 2025 assessment, the APC currently governs Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Cross River, Rivers, and Bayelsa States, marking a complete takeover of a region historically seen as a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The data also highlights varied distributions of party control across other zones: 60% APC dominance in the South-East, 67% in the South-West, an overwhelming 83% in the North-Central, 67% in the North-East, and 71% in the North-West.

While APC supporters celebrated the development as a demonstration of the party’s expanding national reach, critics argued that this apparent sweep does not necessarily reflect the will of the people. Instead, they attribute the gains to mass defections, political intimidation, manipulation of institutions, and systemic weaknesses in the electoral process.

Several commentators pointed out that the South-South’s sudden shift was not a grassroots endorsement of the ruling party but rather a result of elected officials—many of whom originally won their mandates under the PDP—crossing over to the APC after assuming office. They argued that such defections amount to a betrayal of voters’ trust and called for legislative reforms that would penalise elected officials who abandon the platforms on which they were elected.

Others expressed deep concern about the broader implications of the APC’s growing dominance, warning that Nigeria risks sliding into a de facto one-party state. They argued that although political control appears widespread, APC policies have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in governance, economic stability, or quality of life across regions it firmly controls. Critics maintained that political uniformity means little if tangible development outcomes do not follow.

For many Nigerians, the bigger issue lies not in which party controls the most states but whether Nigeria can still conduct truly credible elections. Voices across the thread suggested that unless the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is allowed to operate independently—free from executive influence—election outcomes may continue to reflect the interests of power blocs rather than voters’ true preferences.

Discussions also touched on the political strategy of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Some argued that his approach mirrors the long-standing political template used to consolidate control in Lagos—one that has ensured uninterrupted dominance for more than two decades. They fear the same playbook is now being applied nationally, suggesting that securing governorships is merely the first step in an overarching strategy to retain control of the presidency far beyond 2027.

The divisive role of political actors such as Nyesom Wike was also highlighted. Many believe his actions contributed significantly to the weakening of the PDP in the South-South and across Nigeria. While some analysts describe him as a political tactician, others accuse him of intentionally undermining his own party to curry favour within the ruling establishment.

Amid these debates, one thing remains clear: the consolidation of power in the South-South has intensified national concerns about the future of Nigeria’s democracy. Supporters see strategic brilliance; opponents see troubling authoritarian tendencies. Yet, both camps agree that 2027 could become a defining moment—potentially transforming Nigeria’s political direction for a generation.