Dropping Shettima Could Hurt APC’s 2027 Prospects, Minister Warns

The Minister of Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa, has cautioned the All Progressives Congress (APC) against making any decision that could weaken its political standing ahead of the 2027 general elections, particularly the possibility of altering President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s current ticket by dropping Vice President Kashim Shettima or replacing him with a non–Northern Muslim.

Musawa issued the warning during a recent appearance on Mic On Show, hosted by journalist Seun Okinbaloye, amid growing speculation within political circles that the ruling party may be considering a change to the Muslim–Muslim ticket that featured prominently in the 2023 presidential election. While such discussions have largely remained unofficial, they have continued to generate intense debate both within and outside the party.

According to the minister, removing a Northern Muslim from the presidential ticket would pose a significant political risk for the APC, especially in the core northern states where religion and regional identity continue to play a decisive role in voting behavior. She stressed that political realities in the North cannot be ignored or wished away, no matter how uncomfortable they may appear to some observers.

“If there is no Hausa, Fulani or Kanuri Muslim on that ticket, it creates a hurdle. That is the reality of the way people think,” Musawa stated. She added that northern politics is deeply rooted, complex, and highly strategic, warning that decisions taken without a proper understanding of these dynamics could easily backfire on the party.

Her comments have triggered widespread reactions, with many interpreting them as an indirect message to President Tinubu and the APC leadership not to tamper with the current power arrangement. Some party supporters see Musawa’s remarks as a pragmatic assessment of electoral mathematics, while critics accuse her of elevating religious considerations above competence and performance in governance.

The debate has also revived broader conversations about how religion, ethnicity, and regional interests shape Nigerian politics. While some commentators argue that the North votes primarily along religious lines, others counter that economic hardship, insecurity, and governance failures could override identity politics by 2027. Nonetheless, Musawa’s position reflects a long-standing belief within the APC that the Muslim–Muslim ticket was instrumental to its 2023 victory and remains a strategic asset.

Speculation about a possible rift between President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima has further fueled the controversy. Some observers claim there are early signs of internal tension within the presidency, while others dismiss such claims as political gossip aimed at destabilising the ruling party. Supporters of Shettima argue that dropping him would alienate key northern blocs and potentially fracture the APC’s fragile coalition.

On the other hand, critics of the current administration insist that retaining or dropping the vice president will make little difference if the government fails to address pressing national challenges such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, and declining living standards. For them, performance, not religious balancing, will ultimately determine the APC’s fate in 2027.

Still, Musawa’s intervention underscores the delicate calculations already underway within the ruling party as it looks toward a re-election campaign. With opposition parties exploring alliances and public dissatisfaction growing in some quarters, the APC faces the challenge of maintaining unity while navigating Nigeria’s deeply entrenched identity politics.

As discussions about the 2027 ticket continue, Musawa’s warning serves as a reminder that electoral strategy in Nigeria often extends beyond ideology and policy, touching on sensitive issues of religion, ethnicity, and regional representation. Whether the APC heeds this advice or charts a new course remains to be seen, but the debate itself signals that the race for 2027 has effectively begun.